U.S. Politics, November 2024: GARBAGE DAY!!

Either America's 250 year anniversary will be celebrated by its first female President, or its first felon, insurrectionist, and open admirer of Adolf Hitler

Who will America choose? Apparently it's a coinflip!!

For future ILX historians you may be witnessing the final five days of Donald Trump's political career. If not, things have gone horribly wrong, and I congratulate you for inventing the internet again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypr18UmxOas

Final 5 days if he loses graciously and doesn't try to launch a coup.

Who is THAT jackwad, skipping like a dipshit?

A+ thread title, no notes

who is that jackwad amigo
why is he standing in a contractor bag poncho
with swastikas in his eyes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1F2KHTIUug

He’s finally pivoting to the center

Trump on Liz Cheney: “Let's put her with a rifle standing there with 9 barrels shooting at her. Let's see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face." pic.twitter.com/ajy2wpysAU

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) November 1, 2024

This is obvious to everyone with a brain, but I’ll say it anyway: that is a fucking insane thing for a viable candidate for anything in the United States to gleefully say in public.

who is that jackwad amigo
why is he standing in a contractor bag poncho
with swastikas in his eyes

bodacious Proud Boys
such as your friend will never be welcome here

absolutely a despicable thing to say.

his supporters will say that this is just a version of, "if lynne cheney loves war so much, maybe she should fight it instead of sending others." so they will say this is an anti-war message.

he always leaves himself these little squirrel holes to get out of accountability.

liz cheney, sorry

Buttload of Faith: the 2016 Presidential Primary Thread (Pt 2)

first use of 'garbage country' on ilx, 11 December 2015

Little did we know

garbage country? what is this, the billboard top 100?!?!?

i don't like liz cheney but I certainly think it's bad for to publicly suggest she be shot to death in public. Trump on the other hand...

i love that cnn.com now puts all it's interesting news behind a paywall

She should take him to court over it. That’s a direct threat.

Getting shot at by a supporter really broke whatever there was left of his brain.

She should take him to court over it. That’s a direct threat.

Hunter Thompson used to tell a story about how during one of his drunken college "lectures", he said into a hot mic, "George Bush [senior] ought to be stomped to death, and I'll join in," and the Secret Service was at his front door the next morning.

Good Morning!

https://a57.foxnews.com/static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/10/1200/675/biden_chicken_bite.jpg?ve=1&tl=1

Biden like a trash dog eating chicken bones out the dumpster

I’m sorry, but I just burst out laughing at that

A+ thread title, no notes

― Marten Broadcloak, mild-mannered GOP congressman (Raymond Cummings)

He’s still got it

My family had a little black cat who was the sweetest thing ever 99.9% of the time but once dug a turkey carcass out of what we thought was a well-secured trash bin and when we tried to take it away from her, found her inner sabretoothed tiger.

props to table and jaymc, I got stuck at the first line last thread

the Cheney thing is insane but i actually think he is sincerely trying to do a "if this war-hawk found herself in a warzone" bit. still horrifyingly direct, and eye-popping from a rich-kid draft-dodger, and of course still likely to inspire his heavily armed, insane and conspiratorial supporters to attempt murder of a political rival. but for once the latter seems almost incidental out of sheer negligence.

I agree with you. On the other hand he can go fuck himself.

Are we still really at a point where Trump deserves generosity of interpretation? I don't think so.

'All hell has broken loose': Inside Elon Musk's high-stakes pro-Trump door-knocking effort

Nine Republican operatives and canvassers connected to the Elon Musk-backed America PAC told NBC News that they’re worried the high-profile grassroots operation on behalf of Donald Trump’s presidential bid may hamper his chances in states decided by slim margins.

America PAC has been tasked with much of the pro-Trump canvassing operation as his campaign focuses its efforts on a more limited effort targeting so-called low-propensity voters. In turn, the Musk-backed organization is going door to door in all of the major swing states to help turn out Trump supporters and have them fill out surveys about their voting intentions.

But the people who spoke to NBC News, many of whom have years of experience in GOP field operations, said the operation may not be the well-oiled machine many in the party might hope it is, especially considering how much money is behind the effort.

In particular, they raised concerns about canvassers’ submitting an inordinate amount of suspect data. That data, some of which NBC News has reviewed, includes entries submitted far from the home or while canvassers are logged into Wi-Fi networks — telltale signs that a door was not knocked on, sources said. In addition, a video explaining how to “spoof” one’s location while submitting data drew attention in Nevada and Arizona, raising further concerns.

“I know it’s been flagged for America PAC that this has been transpiring,” an operative formerly on the effort said.

As some of that data spilled into public view last month, an operative close to the effort said: “All hell has broken loose” inside the PAC.

...

Door-to-door canvassing, a major component of what is known as the “ground game,” can make a difference in elections that are determined by 1 percentage point or less. With this election shaping up as one in which many and potentially all of the seven major swing states could be decided by that tight margin, the Musk-backed effort could be at the front of the line for plaudits should he win — or topping the list of reasons he lost.

Those who spoke with NBC News ranged from on-the-ground canvassers to mid-level managers to senior operatives close to the PAC. They were granted anonymity to offer candid assessments and provide information without imperiling their professional prospects.

“There are enough bodies on the ground that there could still be, I think, a modicum of success,” the operative close to the effort said. “Maybe not quite the resounding success that Elon Musk was hoping he was investing in, but I do think that you can do a lot over” the final sprint.

That's a long piece but a fun read. Hire scammers, get scammed!

"the president of the united states once tried to take a bite out of my leg"

that baby now has an interesting fact to use in icebreakers and 2 truths and a lie for the rest of their life

The baby was really giddy!

biden giving that child an unbeatable "two truths and a lie" answer for the rest of their life https://t.co/uwLVr0YjhN

— icky! (@ickyburd) October 31, 2024

Great minds?

not even trying to be generous, that's just how it first landed to my ears. of course I am also a notorious Wiggum truther so ymmv. Alfred otm, to be clear.

they hired the people who used AllAdvantage in the early 2000s and installed their own app to move the mouse every 15 minutes so it looked like they were actively browsing.

xxxposts

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boss_key

used to love the horrible fake reports that would pop up on Pete Rose Baseball when you used the boss key, designed by someone who had never worked in an office before

not even trying to be generous, that's just how it first landed to my ears. of course I am also a notorious Wiggum truther so ymmv. Alfred otm, to be clear.

― the last visible dot (Doctor Casino), Friday, November 1, 2024 10:54 AM (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

how come they never ask the candidates about viking sleep, that would help me an undecided voter

Getting shot at by a supporter really broke whatever there was left of his brain.

― Charlie Hair (C. Grisso/McCain), Friday, November 1, 2024 8:49 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

Kamala trolling him about his rallies during the debate really feels like the inflection point to me

the Cheney thing is insane but i actually think he is sincerely trying to do a "if this war-hawk found herself in a warzone" bit. still horrifyingly direct, and eye-popping from a rich-kid draft-dodger, and of course still likely to inspire his heavily armed, insane and conspiratorial supporters to attempt murder of a political rival. but for once the latter seems almost incidental out of sheer negligence.

― the last visible dot (Doctor Casino), Friday, November 1, 2024 9:35 AM (thirty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I think you're right but this is the guy who has very recently fantasized about using the military against his political enemies and while in office deployed the National Guard to rough up protestors and also took FEMA money to build migrant camps and deliberately tried to get Americans in blue states killed from Covid, never in American history has anyone ever deserved the benefit of the doubt less

what if there's a piece of shrapnel that made it into his head undetected and if he just turns his head a certain way in the next 4 days, he's a turnip

never in American history has anyone ever deserved the benefit of the doubt less

This is too rich to digest, considering you've given DJT the benefit of the doubt exactly the way Doctor Casino did many, many times over the years.

re: benefit of the doubt

I swear to God the final Wall Street Journal editorial making case for Trump includes this line.

“Mr Trump was too undisciplined, and his attention span too short, to stay on message much less stage a coup.”

Too erratic to coup! Trump 2024!

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) November 1, 2024

I like your stories, I love your gun
Shooting out truck tires sounds like loads and loads of fun
But in my room, wish you were dead
You bawl like the baby in Eraserhead

I'm too erratic to coup, I'm too erratic to coup

that WSJ editorial is truly unhinged but also a good lesson for all of us to keep in mind: for every seething, divorced MAGA-hat-in-a-diner, there's also some chode reading the WSJ, performing respectability with an oily grin, perfectly willing to fling burning shit into his neighbor's backyard, only to respond walter sobchak-style when confronted, "i'm calmer 'n you are."

Ah, but what about the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021? Mr. Trump’s attempt to overturn the election was appalling, and for many Americans is disqualifying for a second term. We thought he shouldn’t win the nomination again.

But Democrats helped to revive his fortunes with their unprecedented prosecutions and other excesses. Democrats made Trump II possible as much as GOP primary voters. If Mr. Trump wins, it will be a comeback for the ages, and testament to his resilience and ability to speak for Americans who feel unrepresented.

checkmate, liberals!

(thinks through logic) hmm, so if we let him get away with everything he will lose and Americans will lose interest?

Imagine writing this, publishing this, and having to live with yourself and as a person in a society.

I wish the "he did a coup/is a felon/is clearly insane" argument was more compelling for the American voter, but tbh I think the Harris campaign is making the right call by fighting him to a draw on the economy in the minds of swing voters (which seems to have worked per polling), and then hammering him on abortion.

I love how they always portray Democrats simultaneously as this disorganized, incompetent group of stuttering boobs while at the same time portraying them as an effective hivemind that successfully rigs elections and arrests political opponents

We don't like Trump's crimes but we REALLY don't like him not getting away with his crimes

Neil Finn, the nation turns its lonely eyes to you:

It’s hard to not be drawn in to the American Election... I do find it baffling that many Latinos would give their vote to Trump when he is talking about roundups of illegals. That means dawn raids, suspicion and intense scrutiny of all Latinos. NZ had a period where the police set about looking for overstayers from the Pacific Islands. They mounted dawn raids into households to search for these overstayers. It caused a huge amount of misery and resentment amongst the whole community and was abandoned and now condemned as a sad chapter in NZ history. I wish someone could pass on the sum of that experience to those who face the same potential in the U.S.

there was one really horrible Korean comedian on Last Comic Standing once, a Carlos Mencia type that basically played into stereotypes and made jokes that racist White people would like, and she basically said she was against immigration and when people asked how she could be because of her ethnicity, she always said "well...I'm already here!".

feel like that's the heart of it.

we all have a basic drive towards self-interest, and it doesn't take a huge amount of messaging that it's ok or even good to give into those instincts at the expense of what our more evolved but also instinctive sense of morality and human compassion and solidarity might guide us to do. it's classic angel on one shoulder, devil on the other shit. and this is the result of decades of that messaging that the first instinct is equally or more valid as the second, coming from what is presented in our society as a credible source, if not explicitly the voice of the angel

Anecdata via a text from my mom, who lives in Lebanon, NJ:

Went out to the library for early voting. Parking lot was jammed. Line took about 20 minutes. A couple behind he had their just turned 18 son with them. He was cheered by the crowd. The family was going out to lunch to celebrate.

Another 70 degree day.

Politico: Why the Polls Might Be Wrong - In Kamala Harris' Favor

For eight years, pollsters have been striving to accurately capture former President Donald Trump’s level of support among voters. Even today, on the eve of his third campaign for the presidency, there’s no confidence they’ve nailed it. It raises a question that not enough people are asking: If it’s taken that long to adjust for Trump, is 100 days enough to accurately poll potential Vice President Kamala Harris voters?

It’s not just an academic question. There’s reason to believe that, just as proved to be the case with Trump, there is a fuller range of Harris voters who aren’t being measured.

In this election cycle, pollsters have made a clear effort to explore various methodologies that enable a deeper dive into Trump’s areas of support that were previously underrepresented in past polling. But when asked about the challenge of tracking an abbreviated Harris campaign in the wake of an historic candidate swap, some pollsters believed that the polling transition from Biden to Harris would be “relatively seamless.”

...

While Trump voters have found their voice and the polls have adapted to better hear them, the same cannot be said for many “forgotten” Harris voters that polls are ill-equipped to capture. These voters are not necessarily “shy” with their support for Harris, instead they are overlooked by current polling methods. One such group is a subset of Republicans who increasingly feel politically homeless within their own party: Nikki Haley voters.

A national survey of Nikki Haley’s primary voters conducted in early October by the Democratic polling firm Blueprint has charted this group’s slow but significant shift away from supporting Trump and their increasing willingness to support Democratic presidential candidates over time. (Notably, this survey excludes registered Democrats who voted for Nikki Haley in primaries to ensure the results truly reflect Republican-leaning voter sentiments.) The survey showed that while 66 percent of Haley primary voters supported Trump in 2016, that number dropped to 59 percent in 2020 and is expected to drop even further to 45 percent in this year’s election. Meanwhile, their support for the Democratic presidential nominee has nearly tripled from only 13 percent supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 percent indicating an intent to vote for Kamala Harris.

Basically, the piece seems to be arguing that to assume for polling purposes that all Harris supporters are Democrats could be a serious fuckup.

This is too rich to digest, considering you've given DJT the benefit of the doubt exactly the way Doctor Casino did many, many times over the years.

― WmC, Friday, November 1, 2024 10:17 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

sorry, what exactly are you referring to here?

I don't have the energy to find examples, so I'll withdraw the comment.

The latest TrueAnon podcast has the hosts recount their visit to the MSG America First rally, where just the low-effort, batshit, confidently ignorant pose from the punters in line that exhausted Brace so much he drop his usual ironic style just to lambast them.

https://m.soundcloud.com/trueanonpod/the-player-haters-ball

Far more boos from the audience as the night wore on as the number of idiotic grifter freaks that Don Jr or Eric Trump probably got on the bill kept being introduced as speakers.

I just clicked that link and HOLY FUCK. How does anyone listen to TWO SOLID HOURS of three solipsistic assholes jabbering like that? After five minutes I wanted to do things to them that would make Art the Clown avert his eyes.

lets check in on Newsmax

Newsmax host Rob Schmitt: "Do you know what a furry is? Did you see that episode of Entourage years ago? If not, Google it because the president might be one."https://t.co/X7JzsrCWlD

— Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) November 1, 2024

It’s a good podcast imo

uh xp though I also listen religiously to every newsmax podcast

This is pretty funny; tier-2 right-wing hack Hugh Hewitt flipped out during a Washington Post live chat and stormed off the set after host Jonathan Capehart pointed out that he is, in fact, a lying right-wing hack who will say fucking anything if it benefits Trump and/or the Republican Party.

my god it's insane how much AP is in the tank for Trump

https://i.imgur.com/aqoFbmU.png

I had a video on my TikTok FYP giving tips on spoofing the canvassing and door knocking app used by the Elon Musk PAC. The video presented this as a life hack to make some extra money rather than a protest.

How does anyone listen to TWO SOLID HOURS of three solipsistic assholes jabbering like that?

Nice to see when a podcast can elicit a response, tho “solipsistic” is pretty far from an accurate descriptor of them.

would like to take a minute to salute the great patriots getting paid to enter fake door knocks into trumps gotv app

pretty wild comparing the Trump of 2016 or even 2020 to what we're seeing now, everyone says the presidency ages you dramatically which seems like it was true for everyone *but* Trump, for him *not* being President is what caused him to fall apart

hes also just old

Ozempic Brain

for him *not* being President is what caused him to fall apart

including for the first 70 years of his life, don't forget he wasn't president then either and he was a total shitshow

well the last 3 1/2 years have been filled with indictments, FBI searches, lawsuits, people shooting at him

also probably a lot of soiled depends

the betting whale is doing it for exactly the reason everyone assumed

>"I have absolutely no political agenda"
>On the Zoom call, he alleged that Democrat-aligned media organizations were laying the groundwork for social unrest by stoking expectations of a close race, instead of the Trump blowout that he anticipates. https://t.co/MdyUCSGMJJ

— Quantіan (@quantian1) November 1, 2024

This is pretty funny; tier-2 right-wing hack Hugh Hewitt flipped out during a Washington Post live chat and stormed off the set after host Jonathan Capehart pointed out that he is, in fact, a lying right-wing hack who will say fucking anything if it benefits Trump and/or the Republican Party.

and then quit as a Post columnist.

Aw, gee, that's too bad. Don't let the door hit you in the ass, Hugh.

xp finally the wsj prints news

this seems unwise but then im not someone who has millions to slosh around

But… if you had a large DJT options position, say in the October 31 expiry with cheaper pre-election vol, then you could Hwang that with big a Polymarket long. You’d hedge by dumping DJT on the last day or two, lock in your gains, and ride out the PM long.

— Quantіan (@quantian1) November 1, 2024

and then quit as a Post columnist.

If he took Thiessen with him, I would be content. (Will clearly is immovable.)

Hughie Hewitt knew he blew it

Roffle. Oh Jeff B., all that effort and hedging and this is what happens:

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:tnlhrgmbce34nvpyti46miej/bafkreibizw7lu3u663xlb3xh5ivn7lpdcaxdwuqoqmdc33y5bbvetpwkhe@jpeg

This gun's for hire
Even if we're endorsing in the dark

nobody that thinks they're winning does this etc

You'd also think you wouldn't break into the DNC's office if you were going to win 49 states but there you go.

has trump ever brought up in public that his mother was an immigrant? you'd think that would be a good rally line. "i love immigrants my mother was an immigrant!" english was her 2nd language even. and she was a maid when she came here!

Anyway, WP poll has PA 48 Harris/ 47 Trump

(xp) They're very white in the Western Isles though. Not a lot of sunny days.

This MSNBC segment — an interview with Black men in Georgia who are voting Harris specifically because of abortion and her focus on maternal health — is rough. Some of these guys' wives died in childbirth, others are scared that they might.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-KM0GWtpQw

Hwang that thang

Getting shot at by a supporter really broke whatever there was left of his brain.

― Charlie Hair (C. Grisso/McCain), Friday, 1 November 2024 bookmarkflaglink

Never heard anymore about that guy and what might have been his reasons...

has trump ever brought up in public that his mother was an immigrant? you'd think that would be a good rally line. "i love immigrants my mother was an immigrant!" english was her 2nd language even. and she was a maid when she came here!

But that would mean taking the focus off of him, something he is incapable of.

its wild to think but Trump probably could've easily won 2020 and installed himself as dictator for life if he was capable of moderating his message just a little

like if he had taken any leadership at all during COVID instead of fussing over numbers and talking about bleach while actively trying to get people in blue states killed, it would've been a walk

Yep. But that would have required him to be an entirely different person.

There’s a pathology with guys like this, which makes them in capable of moderating anything. That lack of empathy means they can never extend anything remotely resembling and olive branch and believe me I think that if a humbled Trump showed up in 2024 with a message of change, he would have this in the bag. But like tipsy said that is not who he is.

*incapable
and = an

yeah sort of a trump 22 he never wouldve gotten elected in the first place if he was more normal but he wouldve gotten reelected

ya its almost as if his entire existence is owed to fluke events like the Comey letter

I don't generally like Tom Scocca's writing; he seems like kind of a dick, in the Michael Moore-ish "I wish this guy wasn't on my side" sense. But this piece is good.

I don't think Kamala Harris has blown the election. I have no idea if she's going to win or not; I just don't see how, if Donald Trump becomes president again, there's any real way to blame the Democratic nominee.

Ever since 2016, people have comforted themselves with the stories that Hillary Clinton was a singularly unlikeable candidate or that her campaign didn't take Wisconsin seriously—that she lost to Donald Trump because she fundamentally didn't deserve to win. A less blindered, more righteous candidate would have been able to bend history just a few fractions of a degree away from the track toward disaster.

Maybe. Sure, why not. But there's no convincing story this time around that Harris is making some terrible, obvious, avoidable mistake. She quickly and decisively seized the controls of the tailspinning Joe Biden candidacy and accelerated the Democratic presidential campaign into the stratosphere. She's battling in the battlegrounds, swarming the ground game, maintaining steely message discipline, and obliterating Trump in fundraising. She picked Tim Walz when the clammy centrist ghouls were demanding Josh Shapiro. Tens of thousands of people are turning out to hear her.

...

The alternative is unthinkable, yet somehow plausible. All the reporting says that the Donald Trump campaign is a logistical disaster. He looted the Republican National Committee to pay his own legal fees; he has hardly any staff; his voter turnout operation appears to be a bumbling human-trafficking scheme outsourced to the visibly unraveling Elon Musk. As a candidate, Trump is sagging and rambling, canceling events or falling mysteriously silent onstage or boring his own audiences into leaving. And the polls say he's within a coin toss of winning.

Some people, in some places, do have sincere and pragmatic reasons to elect Donald Trump. If your job involves despoiling the environment—as many American jobs do—your paycheck will likely be more secure under Trump, even if you might have to worry more about flash flooding or cancer. Prison guards and cops should find more opportunities if Trump becomes president again, and with more room for kinetic action and self-expression at work.

None of that, though, adds up to the tens of millions of people whom the pollsters expect to see voting for Trump. Unemployment is historically low, gas prices are down and dropping more, the stock market is at all-time highs, and the economic coverage and the economic polling and the economic coverage of the economic polling has been about nothing but the public's dread of inflation. Large segments of the country say they believe that crime is rampant, rather than low and dropping, and that cities are war zones, and that migrants are crowding out citizens, and that the Biden–Harris administration attacked the inland South with a hurricane, or at least abandoned the region to drown, or definitely did something wrong there. Musk has turned Twitter into a maelstrom of race panic and warnings about voter fraud, the voice of a billionaire cabal who somehow believe that if they smash everything, they'll come out even further ahead than they are now.

When I voted in 2016, I remember the space for Trump drawing my eye with the same perverse, fascinating power as a cop's holstered gun on the subway. You could just reach out—you wouldn't, you would never—but a person could. It was right there. And then enough people in enough places did it. I don't remember what I thought in 2020 at all. In 2024, though, even after I'd bubbled in Harris–Walz, I kept staring at the empty Trump–Vance, not quite believing it was even on the page, an open sore that stubbornly hadn't healed.

Interesting fact: Trump's mother was beaten nearly to death by a mugger when she was a year older than Trump is now.

i like tom s. as a writer but that piece seems pretty dumb

Contemporaneous mugging story:

https://www.upi.com/amp/Archives/1991/10/31/Trumps-mother-mugged/4895688885200/

This is fucking crazy

At the same time, the 2016 and 2020 polling misfires shattered many pollsters’ confidence in their own methods and data. When their results come in very blue, they don’t believe it. And frankly, I share that same feeling: If our final Pennsylvania poll comes in at Harris +7, why would I believe it? As a result, pollsters are more willing to take steps to produce more Republican-leaning results.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/upshot/so-can-we-trust-the-polls.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Wk4.G5V1.UfwDaSVi0TF9&smid=url-share

Demons after Alex Jones now too apparently. I'm not a demonologist but I've seen enough movies about this kind of thing, does it not occur to these guys that this is just the debt coming due for whatever deals they made? Shoulda read the small print before clicking the box.

Alex Jones says Tucker Carlson told him about being mauled by demons in his sleep last year at his house, and they figured out it was connected to someone “laying hands” on him. Alex says he was also attacked by a poltergeist who threw him around and separated his shoulder. pic.twitter.com/xkjJPrghwj

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) November 1, 2024

Reminds me of my dad, who in his later years had dementia so bad he was convinced the nurses in his assisted living unit were not only attacking him at night, but were also roughing up me and my brothers.

First, the pandemic is over. There’s serious evidence suggesting the pandemic was a major factor in the polling error in 2020, as many Democrats stayed at home — and responded to polls — while Republicans went about their lives. It would explain why the fixes that pollsters made after the 2016 election proved so ineffective four years later. If so, many polls might be accurate even without any major changes at all.

I've always suspected this was the case so it's nice to see someone else say it

once again I must point out that the idea that the polls are actually underestimating Trump, suggesting it's plausible that he overperforms 2020 by 8,000,000 votes, feels insane to me. I don't think like that's within the scope of actual possibilities here, I mean it's easy to come up with theories why it might be so (certainly there are a lot of them in this thread) but there's really no evidence on the ground whatsoever suggesting Trump is even gonna come close to winning the popular vote

xxpost Can we donate to these demons?

GoScareMe

once again I must point out that the idea that the polls are actually underestimating Trump, suggesting it's plausible that he overperforms 2020 by 8,000,000 votes, feels insane to me. I don't think like that's within the scope of actual possibilities here, I mean it's easy to come up with theories why it might be so (certainly there are a lot of them in this thread) but there's really no evidence on the ground whatsoever suggesting Trump is even gonna come close to winning the popular vote

it's totally insane at this point, but to be fair, what this country has gone through in the past 20 years would drive anyone insane, to say nothing of the levels of insanity deemed acceptable since our country's founding

but yeah he's a chump and he's gonna lose

levels of insanity some of have deemed acceptable to be fair

as @pwnallthethings.bsky.social points out on blu sky

Another way to think about it is Trump's 2024 small dollar donations ($109m) are ~28% what they were in 2020 ($378m). Harris' ($428m) are ~ 5% higher than Biden-2020 ($406m).

to be fair the megabillionairs are donating way more to trump this time vs last but that's not a lagging indicator per se

https://i.imgur.com/Knjnn2N.png

hahaha

That is the most phoned-in costume I have seen in some time.

So Don Jr. decided not to wear a costume this year?

yeah its true this country has gone insane but the last three big national elections have gone well for the Democrats, not sure what would make this one markedly different

i guess the insanity leads to people panic that trump will win which i understand and did not express v well

I guess there's no big surprise revelation after all, e.g. Trump groping a teen?
Last week the conservasphere was sweating/warning about AI generated mischief

there's the Epstein thing but i think people are wary of it bc it's Michael Wolff

feels like at this point it'll take something truly massive to break through, there has to be video or photos at least

fwiw I suspected that maybe this actually was AI-generated mischief and that's why no one is touching it

As someone said in one of these threads, it'll come out next Wednesday.

seems like someone was def shopping a story but the media wasnt buying for whatever reason

Id wait till like Monday night to drop the AI video so they have less time to disprove it

If our final Pennsylvania poll comes in at Harris +7, why would I believe it?

staring bug-eyed at this quote

if you’re admitting that you’re gonna skew data to make a result seem more reasonable to you, why should we trust your data at all? what is even the point of polling averages if every pollster nowadays is trying to do both-sides data science?

why would you believe anything what is belief anyway time to go to my job working for the paper of record

not to mention that they find option a (they underestimate trump again and people get mad at them) so much worse than option b (trump uses higher poll numbers to push his claim of a stolen election)

its about trauma actually

https://i.imgur.com/v7R614n.png

anyway interesting choice to write an article talking about how youre doing this thing that doesnt make any sense, i appreciate the transparency tho

gonna be amazing when Pig Poop Balls wins the EV

first they came for the pollsters, and i said nothing, for i was not a representative sample

is Trump getting heckled at his own rallies now

While Trump is rambling about Biden, a supporter yells “who cares” pic.twitter.com/0NXcu9LqMp

— Acyn (@Acyn) November 1, 2024

but yeah it does seem like a lot of big name poll dudes have kinda suddenly realized in the last few days that the polls are not really matching what we're seeing on the ground at all and maybe this fear of underestimating Trump again made them go too far in the other direction

theyre looking at the facts on the ground and saying weird this looks like what my polls are saying before the fear of trump adjustment

I'm all for the trump-leaning polls if it drives turnout, they can eat their crow later

like if you could boil 2016 down to one lesson it's that Trump was not an aberration, if you treated him like a normal candidate his victory shouldn't have been all that shocked

now we're in 2024 and he IS the GOP establishment and we're still assuming there's some sort of Trumpy magic out there that's making this a coinflip despite the fact that his small donor numbers and crowd sizes have completely cratered, we see now he has basically zero ground game, and his campaign has decided to focus on "we are trash people" for its closing message

Politico story:

Harris campaign: Late-deciding voters are ‘breaking by double digits’ for the VP

Kamala Harris’ campaign is feeling good about their chances with voters who are only now making up their minds about who to cast their ballots for.

Harris campaign manager David Plouffe wrote Friday afternoon on X that late-deciding voters are “breaking by double digits” for the vice president, with “the remaining undecideds looking more friendly” to them than Donald Trump. His comments echo those shared by senior campaign officials earlier Friday on a call with reporters.

“We have believed all along that there were still undecided voters here, and that the close of this race was really, really important,” said one of the senior campaign officials, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the state of the race. “And we are seeing that be the case as we are closing out in the last week.”

The official said that a recent focus group with undecided voters in a battleground state showed that the racist, misogynistic and vulgar language at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally in New York over the weekend isn’t just impacting Puerto Rican and Latino voters, but undecided voters as a whole.

“It really kind of crystallized for them the choice in their minds between the vice president, who they're seeing talk about being a president for everyone, someone focused on them and solving their problems, and Trump, and these really kind of dark, divisive language and events and activities,” the official said. “We don't always see, when we're talking to swing voters, anything that you can really see them kind of finalize their point of view or finalize their opinion.”

and his campaign has decided to focus on "we are trash people" for its closing message

would be great if he were to encourage his ever-dwindling crowds to throw rotting garbage at him on the podium, just go all-in on the garbage thing

just trash folks

Can’t believe sources inside the Harris campaign aren’t saying “we’re completely shitting the bed, everything’s fucked, everybody sucks”

Just dancing alone on stage to "YMCA" while he does that double jack-off dance he does, being pelted by garbage from all sides. Helluva way to end the campaign.

need to know what percentage of the electorate waits til the final week to make up their mind who are these people

"C'mon people, is that the best you got?? Let's see some GARBAAAAAGE!!" in a pro-wrestling voice

trash not trans

look I'll be honest if this really does all come down to like 50k votes in PA it may be worth all the heart attacks along the way. the idea of a roast comedian singlehandedly preventing the Fourth Reich feels like it would make the perfect Tim Heidecker movie

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PdKGDMhau4

Can’t believe sources inside the Harris campaign aren’t saying “we’re completely shitting the bed, everything’s fucked, everybody sucks”

There have been plenty of those stories. These are Democrats we're talking about, after all.

need to know what percentage of the electorate waits til the final week to make up their mind who are these people

Your parents and their friends. The cashier at the weed store. ILXor table (although his choice was between voting Harris and not voting).

The Uncommitted voters are also undecided in this way, and there are tons of them.

not my parents and their friends fwiw theyre all resistance libs ill have to ask the bud tender tho

I haven't voted yet but that has more to do with laziness over down-ticket candidates (dog-catcher, etc) and mysterious ballot propositions that I don't understand

Trump rally heckler OTM

he thought it was a Thom Yorke gig

It’s not too late for W. to weigh in

The Uncommitted voters are also undecided in this way, and there are tons of them.

― guillotine vogue (suzy), Friday, November 1, 2024 4:26 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

seems to be a lot of evidence they are going for Harris though. it's a choose-your-preferred-enemy strategy

I think it is actually a lot of folks who don't normally vote, don't pay attention to the news, have friends on both sides that they don't wanna upset, think "whatever both sides are corrupt" but just hate the divisiveness. I know because I have a friend like this and he's one of the happiest dudes i know. again this isn't the Trump of 2016 where you don't know what he's gonna do, people associate him more with Hitler now than they do the Celebrity Apprentice

they mail out ballots here but i like to turn mine in on the day of the election so i can check out the scene at the polls (old ladies with clipboards at the fire station) also i have not decided yet haha

I was at Target the other day and even the guy handing out free samples of some energy water shit was talking to some (engaged!) customer about what a piece of shit Trump is.

fwiw I see a lot of people I know who loathe Harris but loathe Trump more breaking for Harris because the idea of four more years of Trump makes them feel nauseous, and they realize that Palestinians will be even worse off should Trump win. that was essentially my calculus, too.

https://www.12news.com/article/news/politics/elections/arizona-top-prosecutor-kris-investigating-trumps-comments-about-cheney-possible-death-threat/75-91f8b734-06eb-4aeb-a633-89be0df7c4c4

double haters breaking for harris we love to see it

trump going on about immigrants taking the 'african-american jobs' again

look after that Trump-Biden debate the thing I heard constantly from real, not-very-online folks was "how is it these two, they both are so old and brain damaged, I'd vote for anyone else" and welp now's your chance

got em

https://media1.tenor.com/m/BKk0-I2aA78AAAAd/we-got.gif

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7MQ5rxUZsc

Should have called them shitheads not garbage, now they’d all be happily walking round with fresh turds coiled on their wigs.

Nate Silver of all people is very much not buying this

We ran the numbers. Even if all 7 swing states are actually tied, there's only a ~1 in 9.5 trillion chance~ that so many polls would show such a close race. 🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑 pic.twitter.com/X131aHveRR

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2024

Sir, please, i have tears in my eyes i dont know what the fuck that means

you have to admit, trump HAS brought a lot of people together. think of all the strange bedfellows! i never thought i would ever see so many Republicans supporting a Democrat like this! it truly is unprezidenated.

This is a journey:

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:q5wqr7zofdqyqwoki4cby36x/bafkreibvhnwvm4a7o7rrolw52fap2wawwc64itvr5kceboumljvtafdd5i@jpeg

haa

lol

Man, the strangest bedfellows

so much beauty packed into so few words!

Just need Billy McFarland on board.

So... pollsters are basically punk ass people who juke the stats to please their bosses and keep their jobs.

Kewl. https://t.co/6dy2J6Mouk

— Elie Mystal (@ElieNYC) November 1, 2024

The more I think about it, the more that this is just an AMAZING admission from the NYT pollster.

He's saying that his people are so terrified of being wrong that they're literally stoking fires of a Trump victory... which will fuel Trump's claims that the vote was rigged.

— Elie Mystal (@ElieNYC) November 1, 2024

Could just be hopium but it sure sounds like the people who have been publicly freaking us out with this coin flip narrative are starting to realize there’s actually a clear favorite here

maybe we should just stop all this hand-wringing polling shit in the future and just wait for the outcome... is there any real reason to torture ourselves?

Lock thread!

the polls arent really the problem the problem is american elections last for fucking ever

Is Nasty Nate Silver doing a face turn?

maybe we should just stop all this hand-wringing polling shit in the future and just wait for the outcome

or maybe if we live in swing states we should be knocking on people's doors like I just came back from doing, and if we don't, calling people who do

There are absolutely voters, right now, four days out, who intend to vote for Harris but don't know whether they're registered, don't know whether it's too late, don't know when or where they can go, are waiting for an absentee ballot to come in the mail.... I talked to one yesterday and one today. Just saying -- if this is an option for you, please join the people who are doing it. It keeps the doom away and it really does matter.

I don't want to be annoying about this, I just want to help it be the case that tens of thousands of people are spending this weekend doing this

good point good stuff

I'm not in a swing state and everyone here has guns. No door-knocking for me. (People have come around; I've found Tester and Sheehy flyers tucked next to my doorknob. But nobody has actually knocked.)

Yeah, thanks for getting out there eephus - I'm all for GOTV efforts, I was just speaking about these clearly broken polls that we watch like a tennis ball traveling back & forth, it's an industry that doesn't really serve a purpose as far as I can tell

the problem the problem is american elections last for fucking ever

hard agreement on this, in fact they never end

hard agreement on this, in fact they never end

I mean honestly I think one big structural advantage Kamala Harris has is that she's only been running for President for four months! People aren't fucking sick of her!

is it UK that only allows six week campaigns? God I would kill for that, let's rejoin the Crown

switching to a more contemporary parliamentary system would have such benefits for the country and indeed the world unfortunately this is something we can never do because of out devotion to the ancient mystical document the constitution

Trump running for what 20 years or something now versus Kamala running for less than four months, advantage definitely Kamala.

yeah and she's like 20 years younger and doesn't look all tired and haggard, caked with burnt umber shoe polish

‪Ian Boudreau‬ ✧@iboudr✧✧✧.b✧✧✧.soc✧✧✧‬
Musk taking over twitter and turning it into a Trump campaign site, the betting market shit, polls being cooked - all of this feels like Trump is the biggest hodler-ass WAGMI ape memecoin cope campaign ever assembled

https://bsky.app/profile/iboudreau.bsky.social/post/3l7wgyar7j72i

the clown is wearing his garbage truck vest to events now

https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/c-gettyimages-2182001999.jpg

hodler-ass WAGMI ape memecoin cope

^^^ some young person pls explain what this means

Trump is the biggest hodler-ass WAGMI ape memecoin cope campaign ever assembled

Okay, but what is the SECOND biggest hodler-ass WAGMI ape memecoin cope campaign ever assembled?

Xp

thought you guys were brat

some young person pls explain what this means

― tobo73, Friday, November 1, 2024 8:50 PM (twenty-nine seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

im not young but its all crypto trading bs more or less except for cope which is just you know coping

WAGMI stands for "We Are Gonna Make It" and has a positive connotation

WAGMI memecoin cope campaign
Doo-dah, doo-dah

i did have to look that one up lol

kamala would say the campaign is 'unserious'

I assumed WAGMI was like some really quality japanese beef or something

that would be nice

Waygu, WAGMI

some underlying cargo cult thinking to a lot of this stuff theyre trying

I didn't realise he was actually using "Trump Will Fix It!", does he know how that looks to the Brits? Not that it matters I guess, kind of a fitting association anyway.

Okay, but what is the SECOND biggest hodler-ass WAGMI ape memecoin cope campaign ever assembled?

― kato kaelin-manuel miranda (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, November 1, 2024 8:51 PM (eighteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

blake masters maybe

Canvassing tomorrow morning.

nice

Much appreciation to eephus, Alfred and everyone else putting boots on the ground, phone-banking, etc.

While Harris is actively scooping up Haley voters, she is also likely to pick up a larger-than-expected proportion of undecided voters who are leftists supporting the Uncommitted Movement. These ‘Uncommitted’ Democrats have been clear in their commitment to withholding their support for Democratic candidates until they see a significant change in the party’s approach to the war in Gaza. Leaders of the movement have declined to endorse Kamala Harris in hopes that they can leverage their support for the party in exchange for a shift in foreign policy that protects innocent Palestinians and their right to self-determination.

However, an uncommitted Democrat withholding their support for their party in polling doesn’t automatically translate to a withheld vote on Election Day. Despite withholding their support, movement leaders have stated their explicit commitment to “register a vote that ensures we are blocking Donald Trump.” This isn’t a small group — more than 700,000 voters across the map opted to vote ‘uncommitted’ in Democratic primaries. It’s convincing evidence that a significant proportion of the existing “undecided” vote is made up of ‘uncommitted’ Democrats who plan to quietly support Harris when it’s time to cast their ballots.

Throughout the campaign, leftists have encouraged one another to “vote for your preferred enemy,” implicitly understanding that a second Trump presidency would be exponentially worse for their cause. The most important signifier of the Uncommitted Movement, after all, is their belief in tactically utilizing the democratic process to enact change. These are voters who participated in primary elections explicitly to support no candidate. They are politically active and deeply engaged in the political process. They clearly understand the power of their votes and know that sitting out this election entirely would simply hand power to those who don’t share their beliefs.

from the Politico article about why the Harris vote might be underestimated.

One of the most left people I know on social media put it this way: "You're not voting for who you support, you're voting for who you want to be protesting against."

Now I don't know whether to read that as "leftists are voting for Harris" or "my leftist friend's other leftist friends aren't voting for Harris and that's why she feels she needs to post this"

Much appreciation to eephus, Alfred and everyone else putting boots on the ground, phone-banking, etc.

― Blitz Primary (tipsy mothra), Friday, November 1, 2024 8:27 PM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Yes indeed

im sure a lot of uncommitted voters were planning on going with harris all along i mean those are people who are doing a politics via voting so you gotta think a lot of them are going to vote, as for more general dem hating leftists well theyre also pretty politically engaged people, and trump makes it easy to vote for harris by being so blatantly unrelentingly awful, i mean i myself am a double hater but i hate trump and the republicans so much more its kind of not fair to refer to both the hates by the same name, tho fwiw im not voting for harris but i would if i were in a swing state so dont worry

i mean i myself am a double hater but i hate trump and the republicans so much more its kind of not fair to refer to both the hates by the same name, tho fwiw im not voting for harris but i would if i were in a swing state so dont worry

can we just pin this to the top of every subsequent uspol thread kthx

Oh and also I talked to one Puerto Rican voter and.... she was aware of what was said at Madison Square Garden

My wife is canvassing outside Milwaukee tomorrow, I am canvassing around Madison on Monday, I will report back.

the Access Hollywood tape is trending on TikTok, where some zoomers are hearing it for the first time: https://archive.ph/VZtRZ

This week, many said on the social network they were shocked by the former president’s words and confused why the episode wasn’t a dealbreaker in 2016.

“I don’t think any of my friends had heard it,” said Kate Sullivan, a 21-year-old student in Ohio who heard the tape for the first time on her TikTok For You feed this week. “We all felt equally shocked.”

Did people know about the tape before they voted in 2016? she asked a Post reporter.

Yes, the tape came out before Election Day.

“I just recently got into politics,” she said. “The fact that people knew about this, and he still won, is pretty wild to me.”

“Damn, the recent past was crazy, bro”

I like the idea of these kids giving their elders shit for voting this maniac into the presidency though, gonna be some intense holiday dinners

yeah I agree that's a really hard thing to explain

"wait is this country completely fucked?"

*reporter pulling on their collar*

"Well, you see, Kate, Secretary Clinton didn't use dual factor authentication, so both candidates had real flaws"

Lol

Cardi B is going off right now in Wisconsin.

Someone should post the clip of him mocking a disabled reporter on Tiktok, the new voters need to see that... I'm still shocked that wasn't the end of him...

Imagine being 13 in 2008 and not being aware of that. Either you’re Amish or you’re a fucking idiot

Meant 2016

cmon give a 13 year old a break they were prob busy with pokeman or whatever

Imagine being 13 in 2008 and not being aware of that. Either you’re Amish or you’re a fucking idiot

― beamish13, Friday, November 1, 2024 7:17 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

repulsive comment

they were playing...minecraft. they weren't watching the news.

they were all about super meat boy not trump clips. actually i have no idea what they were about but it wasn't trump clips.

Jesus, I apologize for having some faith that there are a few young people who are somewhat aware of notable events in the world

Because mocking people with disabilities continues to never be taboo in America. This piece of human excrement just called Harris “retarded”, and gets zero pushback.

this generation of college students is the most hyper aware and left in their political leanings that i have ever met, and i have been teaching college kids for a decade. you have no idea what you’re talking about :-)

I absolutely do know, as I am, unfortunately, a secondary teacher. At least until we achieve AGI and none of us are needed

you seem miserable. good luck.

I think many of us here were bright young kids who were unusually interested in current events long before we could vote, but not everyone is like that. And that’s okay.

yeah i mean being a 13 year old anarchist brat didn’t make me a lot of friends, just seems insane and frankly bizarre to call children idiots about current events. of course they are, they’re children!

xp and here’s why

*squints*

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:r6wxaadynk3m7sqsyn3r3vrf/bafkreihl4rd3bbiqe3eqjlpwdo5ct6wktsgwxk4qmdvhvpyfcjzvfkbe5u@jpeg

Find any scam you can, I guess.

I’m waiting for Andrew Tate to weigh in before I make my choice

my daughter is 12 and fairly interested in current events but most of her friends don’t follow the political news. they do think about climate change, that’s probably the most common thing inside their own little worlds that they’re engaged in. but gotta agree with table here, that is no indication of how informed or politically active they’ll be in a few years, let alone as adults

xp and here’s why

― Lavator Shemmelpennick, Friday, November 1, 2024 10:57 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

lol

"You're not voting for who you support, you're voting for who you want to be protesting against."

Just 15 minutes ago my wife commented to me that as soon as it's clear Harris has won, then we'll be free to start slamming her on the war in Gaza. She's 75 years old, but was raised in the Friends Meeting, which is the more liberal offshoot of the Friends Church (Quakers).

> then we'll be free to start slamming her on the war in Gaza.

No time more effective to hold someone’s feet to the fire than when the person has just been elected, is guaranteed four years in office and no party will abandon the incumbency advantage after four years unless you’re exhibiting signs of dementia.

What’re you gonna do in 2028 if your genocide protests are ineffective, not vote?

I voted for her. what are you going to do?

to repeat the context: "You're not voting for who you support, you're voting for who you want to be protesting against."

whatever you've chosen to do, how about you make your case for it?

So she’s guaranteed your vote no matter how much your ‘Gaza slams’ are ignored? Sounds like a protest strategy even less effective than voting for Jill Stein - at least Stein could theoretically sway an election.

Vote for her, don’t vote for her, who cares? ‘Once she’s elected then the real pressure starts’ is just lying to yourself.

Yeah that context is incredibly stupid, that’s the point. “Elect THEN protest” is just a convenient thing to say to make yourself feel better if you want to pretend to care about arming a genocide.

It would be healthier to just say “Gaza wasn’t important enough to sway my vote” and leave it there.

The Las Vegas Sun coming out swinging. If only such sentiments were permissible in the New York Times or Washington Post.

Donald Trump’s racism, sexism, xenophobia and penchant for corruption have long made him unfit for any public office, let alone the presidency. But as he continues his bid for a second term in the White House, there is an unsettling and undeniable shift that is leading many experts, observers and even some Trump supporters to conclude that the former president’s mental acuity and sharpness are also in decline, that his physical health and stamina are waning and that his frustration and anger are boiling over.

Americans from both sides of the political spectrum should be alarmed by Trump’s words and behavior. The nation must confront the fact that beyond his hateful character, he is crippled cognitively and showing clear signs of mental illness.

There’s no need to resort to armchair psychology to interpret what’s apparent. If victorious, Trump would be the oldest president ever inaugurated. In recent weeks, he has canceled an increasing number of public appearances, with Trump’s own campaign citing the candidate’s exhaustion. When he does appear publicly, Trump struggles to complete sentences or sustain coherent thoughts, and has shown a pronounced difficulty concentrating and a tendency to repeat himself, sometimes within the same sentence.

At a recent rally in New Hampshire, for example, Trump began to discuss infrastructure and wound up segueing into a disjointed monologue about loyalty and perceived injustices against him, ending with a bewildering comment about windmills causing cancer.

This is not an isolated incident. A recent analysis by The New York Times noted that Trump’s rally speeches over the past eight years have become darker, longer, more profane and increasingly unfocused and unhinged — a troubling sign that he is no longer able to articulate ideas or reason in ways we expect of our leaders. This makes him prey to manipulations by his own staff or, worse, the control of foreign adversaries.

Amazingly, it gets harsher from there.

“Elect THEN protest” is just a convenient thing to say to make yourself feel better if you want to pretend to care about arming a genocide.

No, it's the only pragmatic option.

Anyone who would care enough about Gaza to not vote for Harris also probably cares about abortion rights and Haitians in Ohio and trans kids etc etc so it’s deeply understandable why one would vote for Harris regardless.

It is perfectly understandable - so no one needs to pretend that the game is to make politicians better after you have no power over them through the collective energy of harsh slams.

It’s not even a Rep or Senator who needs your vote until the end of time and might get primaried at some point. Unless Kamala’s brain starts going on the fritz like Joe’s she is guaranteed that second nomination - and the Democrats would have stuck it out with Joe up against anyone but Trump.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-biden-harris-curse-tucker-carlson-b2639640.html
Former President Donald Trump launched a profanity-laden attack on Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, calling the president a “stupid bastard” and the vice president a “sleazebag.”

He just doesnt care anymore does he?

Since he won't say it: like myself, Milo is a lefty millennial in Texas, so his votes for anything but maybe some very local offices have never counted for anything at all so far in his lifetime.

No, it's the only pragmatic option.

What's pragmatic about it? College kids were getting beaten by cops protesting genocide while Democrats collectively sided with the genocidaires (and the cops) and Israel policy hasn't moved one micrometer in the run-up to the most important election of our lives.

If you've given your vote to Harris and you're guaranteed to give it to her again and you're guaranteed to give it to every Democrat who runs for office in between... what is the mechanism by which you think these protests will force the politicians being protested to change?

It took a summer of sustained insurrection - under a Republican President - to get Democrats to kinda sorta move to the left on policing and police violence and then they wound up with "shoot em in the knee" Biden and are still pouring money into the pigs' coffers and... cheering on the pigs beating college kids for protesting genocide.

xp - and I'm not telling anyone to not vote. I cannot imagine caring if anyone else votes. The idea, however, that a captured group of voters can then sway policy through writing critical articles is so obviously not reality. We already lived through peaceful protest under a Democratic President being met repeatedly with state violence and nothing changed. How is that going to play different after they don't need your votes?

Protest against people you put in power will never have an impact unless there's a chance you might take them out of power. You don't vote for 'the people you want to protest,' you voted for their policy.

honestly, i agree with milo. i voted for Harris despite her stance on Gaza, not because i am deluded enough to think she or any Dem politician will stop the flow of AIPAC money to their coffers. these people are perfectly fine with aiding and abetting genocide now— thinking that they can be swayed after more than a year of what Israel has been doing is, frankly, naïve in the extreme. But that’s Quakerism for you.

Polls polls polls

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/poll-shows-israelis-massively-favor-trump-over-harris-in-us-election

(I write that as someone partially raised in a Quaker meeting, fwiw)

from the Las Vegas Sun piece shared by unperson:

When he does appear publicly, Trump struggles to complete sentences or sustain coherent thoughts, and has shown a pronounced difficulty concentrating and a tendency to repeat himself, sometimes within the same sentence.

At a recent rally in New Hampshire, for example, Trump began to discuss infrastructure and wound up segueing into a disjointed monologue about loyalty and perceived injustices against him, ending with a bewildering comment about windmills causing cancer.

in other words... a speech by Donald Trump? to be clear, I'm very glad to see it getting called out in print but jesus it's been nine solid years of this! obvious to anyone actually watching his speeches or reading the raw transcripts (who was the reporter in 2016 that used to post highlighted snippets on Twitter?)!

he is obviously in massive decline physically and cognitively, but imo the new part is that he sounds wheezy and looks glassy-eyed, not that he's stringing together random grievances, conspiracy theories, slurs and misunderstood news snippets. that's who h is! his entire political career has been as a walking churning Deep Dream of the conservative media sphere. every single ilxor had this sorted out two presidential terms ago; maybe our nation's most penetrating political analysts could have clocked this slightly sooner? to be fair i guess they were too busy poring over the exit polls of individual imaginary Midwestern diners.

this generation of college students is the most hyper aware and left in their political leanings that i have ever met, and i have been teaching college kids for a decade. you have no idea what you’re talking about :-)

― butt dumb tight my boners got boners (the table is the table), Saturday, 2 November 2024 bookmarkflaglink

I like this clear piece from The Nation's interns on their non-endorsement of Kamala, in opposition to the Nation's main editorial board.

https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/kamala-harris-counter-endorsement/

Obviously this is almost nobody's politics here.

TLDR: Gaza Gaza Gaza Gaza Gaza Gaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza GazaGaza Gaza Gaza Gaza Gaza

The Access Hollywood tape came out eight years ago. An 18-year-old adult would've been 10 in 2016 and, exceptions noted, not following politics like ILX nerds. I'm surprised we have to stress this.

fp’d dandy don. i too am sick of having th same discussion over and over again, but that was gross

Totally obnoxious.

That piece in the Nation was literally the same point over and over again until it ran out of gas after almost 2000 words.

It actually wasn't. The connections between foreign and domestic policy were well made.

Every paragraph but two note the Gaza/Palestine/Israel issue and the connections to foreign/domestic policy were only in the context of that conflict.

As you noted, that article reflects almost nobody's politics here (which doesn't disqualify it for me personally) but it's drudgery to read just the same. Not worth 2000 words.

Its worth more than 2000 words, and certainly more than whatever you are spewing out. You can only see (and be bored by) the word "Gaza" over and again because you don't care, and it disqualifies it for you. Even if you deny it your reaction says otherwise.

I read that piece a few days ago and knew someone would get pissy at it if I posted it here. As expected.

It was a chore to read because it's dogmatic and boring. You got pissy because I pointed that out.

Being flippant about Gaza says something about a person.

I am not the only one who has noticed your rotten attitude xp

Maybe I should have been more clear. My friend who was saying "You're not voting for who you support, you're voting for who you want to be protesting against" was NOT saying she thought that was going to be an effective way of changing United States policy towards Israel. She does not. She means that given what she takes to be the certainty she's going to be protesting US policy, she would rather have the President who is not going to order her shot in the street.

I should say that she also thinks a Harris administration vs a Trump administration is a real material difference for trans people and women in the US in the immediate term.

also one would do a lot for climate and the other has plans to make it much much worse which seems like a big deal if you don't like international conflict

the climate will almost certainly continue to deteriorate under either candidate

speaking of cognitive decline

? pic.twitter.com/vl8h6OXzsf

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) November 2, 2024

fp’d dandy don.

― hott ogo (voodoo chili), Saturday, November 2, 2024 8:25 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

same

when hasn't Donald Trump been in cognitive decline?

he was so much more eloquent on the grab 'em by the pussy tape

are you guys saying theres no difference between trump now and two cycles ago cause you should go back and watch some tape its pretty striking, if youre just saying hes always been fucked in the head well fine

At the end of June, in the afterglow of a debate performance that would ultimately prompt President Joe Biden to end his campaign for reelection, Donald Trump startled his aides by announcing that he’d come up with a new nickname for his opponent.

“The guy’s a retard. He’s retarded. I think that’s what I’ll start calling him,” Trump declared aboard his campaign plane, en route to a rally that evening, according to three people who heard him make the remarks: “Retarded Joe Biden.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/11/trump-2024-campaign-lewandowski-conway/680456/

are you guys saying theres no difference between trump now and two cycles ago cause you should go back and watch some tape its pretty striking, if youre just saying hes always been fucked in the head well fine

― lag∞n

He's fucked in the head. But, yeah, if you watch a clip from him recorded in 1999 or even 2011 he's in full command of subjects, verbs, and objects.

nah I agree with you and I meant that sincerely at least on the Access Hollywood tape he was able to stay on the same topic for a minute

the rate that he's declined over the last couple months especially really is something though, he's got 10 more events over the next 3 days, idk how its possible but there's a good chance things get even stranger

honestly feel like it would be better for his campaign to just cancel them all. this shit cannot possibly be helping him. good thing his campaign is run by total dipshits who decided to put him in solid blue Virginia in November

wait so that video lagoon posted was trump miming a blowjob ??

Adding new moves to the double handjob dance

how do I know when *I* have cognitive decline

deepfake creators must be pissed that trump is out there fellating microphones and looking like a blow-up sex doll in official Getty photos

yeah wild stuff im not sure why he was doing it all the clips i found were cut the same as that one

even the president of the United States sometimes must be able to stand and make blow job gestures.

guess he was mad at the mic stand

‪Ian Boudreau‬ ✧@iboudr✧✧✧.b✧✧✧.soc✧✧✧‬
Hey just in case you went to bed at a normal time, last night Trump got so mad about a microphone stand issue at a rally that he pretended to give it a blowjob

xp tbf that would have been my sole debate strategy against donald trump

yes that is a satisfying explanation lmao

here's a longer clip

What is happening pic.twitter.com/YPM8eMuIaL

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 2, 2024

from what I can see he spent a large portion of the rally whining about the mic, talking about how much he wanted to beat up the sound guys and how he was gonna stiff them on the bill. you know, really firing up the working class. once again you could clearly see people leaving about half way through.

we watched Kamala's rally in West Allis and it was really good actually, crowd on their feet the whole time, cheering every 15 seconds or so, she came off real charismatic and confident, maybe not quite at Obama levels but she's definitely better at this than Hillary or Biden were

i dont think i can ever remember such a stark contrast like this, in 2016 Trump's rallies at least had some enthusiasm and more measured insanity about them, people were so fired up at those that they were beating up protestors in the stands, now he can't even get people to stay the whole time, if this turns out to be the winning campaign I'm going to check myself into the mental hospital and introduce myself to the millions of crazy folks that are getting sent to us from every other country in the world

from that atlantic article theres a vance sidekick who the campaign higher ups hate a lot

One staffer in particular—a young activist named Alex Bruesewitz—helped convince Vance and his team that this was an opportunity to put his stamp on the campaign. Vance agreed. “Reports now show that people have had their pets abducted and eaten by people who shouldn’t be in this country,” the senator posted on X, catching the Trump campaign’s leaders entirely off guard.

...

In truth, some of Trump’s senior staff hadn’t actually watched Hinchcliffe’s set. The Garden was a labyrinth of security checkpoints and political processions, and the event had barely been under way when he spoke. Now they were racing to catch up with the damage—and rewinding the clock to figure out how Hinchcliffe had ended up onstage in the first place.

It didn’t take long to get to the answer: Alex Bruesewitz.

We will have an answer next week, but Vance sure seems like one of the all time worst VP picks, sub Sarah Palin perhaps.

A hopey thread about Ga. voting

Georgia's early voting has ended, and from an analytical standpoint, every metric I'd want to see for a Harris victory is present.

Let's break down why. 🍑

— Data&Politics | Blue Georgia 🏳️‍🌈 (@dataandpolitics) November 2, 2024

def an interesting thing that they picked him cause hes young and wired in with the new wave of gop insiders but did not consider that the whole crew is repulsive psycho freaks xp

PredictIt flipped to Kamala over the last 24 hours

the Atlantic article is great, all those people love telling the media everything

we love to see the backstabbing starting early lol

The thing with Vance is he’s such a beta toady if Trump dies in office I don’t see the party rallying around him at all

Medhi Hasan has been taking on questions like the ones milo raises above. Medhi laid it out with Tim Miller yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BJIzIlW4Lk

It's disingenuous to pretend the election is happening in a vacuum. It would be very different if it were a referendum. If you accept pure math and look at the evidence and the choices, Trump cannot be the next president.

He says to people in Texas specifically, think about how to get rid of Ted Cruz.

He also breaks down some of the weird ads in Michigan - how the one focused on Doug Emoff is misogyny wrapped in Islamophobia wrapped in antisemitism.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcaG6wGmqDs

“from what I can see he spent a large portion of the rally whining about the mic, talking about how much he wanted to beat up the sound guys and how he was gonna stiff them on the bill. you know, really firing up the working class. once again you could clearly see people leaving about half way through.”

What’s the over / under on direct and unmistakeable ethnic slurs live onstage between now and Tuesday?

Maybe he’ll bring a bag of garbage onstage and throw trash out to exuberant attendees

Or maybe he’ll stop the rally to dance along to “Dirty Work”

i agree vance is a terrible vp pick but i also feel like he will be the next republican presidential nominee. more likely if trump wins but even if not his odds are still good imo. just a hunch but i think he’s gonna get the lions share of trump’s primary voters while at the same time being palpable enough to what remains of the non-trump establishment republicans

i think if trump goes away nikki haley is totally going up against kamala in 4 years.

more likely if trump wins but even if not his odds are still good imo. just a hunch but i think he’s gonna get the lions share of trump’s primary voters

If Trump loses? I think this is true only if Trump is alive and strongly supports him. But more likely is that if Trump loses he talks shit about how Vance failed him and lost him the election and is a loser weirdo. I don't think Trump's voters have any residual affection for the people who suck up to Trump. Trump has contempt for those people and ditches them the moment they're no longer useful and his voters understand and conform to that.

i dont think vance has the stuff to win a primary

also i think trump will run again if he loses and is still alive

hopefully hell be incarcerated at the time tho

Vance is the broligarch’s choice now and in the future.

I don’t think he will know who he is as the next primary season arrives

Trump specifically

I think if Trump loses Vance doesn't even run for reelection and goes back to being a rich tech-bro/venture capital dude with a right-wing think tank position of some kind and lucrative hustle as a speaker at conservative confabs. That guy does not feel like an elected politician lifer to me.

The biggest mark against Vance is all the dumb shit he's obviously going to say and do between now and 2028.

I don’t think he will know who he is as the next primary season arrives

― Marten Broadcloak, mild-mannered GOP congressman (Raymond Cummings), Saturday, November 2, 2024 1:07 PM (eighteen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah he could be too far gone to run but who knows where that line is hes just gotta be well enough to go on tv and say hes running, def a good chance if he runs that the campaign is doa tho

My guess would be that Haley has very little future in the Republican party at a national level--that the best she could do is what Romney does now.

Xp But can they make the R base like him? They were originally all in on DeSantis

To Suzy

if trump loses the gop is def in an interesting spot theyre not going to be able to put the genie back in the bottle but at the same time all the wannabe trumps have so far turned out to be total stiff losers

I think the GOP's permanently in what suzy calls a broligarchy and Haley has no future.

also i think trump will run again if he loses and is still alive

― lag∞n, Saturday, 2 November 2024 1:04 PM (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

man i hope not

if trump loses the gop is def in an interesting spot theyre not going to be able to put the genie back in the bottle but at the same time all the wannabe trumps have so far turned out to be total stiff losers

If Donald Trump loses (and I very much think he is going to) he will have lost two presidential elections in a row and cost his party the House, the Senate, and numerous other elections across the country. He, himself, is a loser and electoral poison. The fact that he fell backwards into an electoral college victory one time eight years ago has so thoroughly brainwashed people that it's fucking amazing.

yeah its for sure something

An interesting comment from Bluesky (don't know who the poster is):

We are going to look back at Trump 2024 and realize we were scared of something that was falling apart on its own the entire time, just like we did with the Soviet Union 30 years ago.

if trump loses the gop is def in an interesting spot theyre not going to be able to put the genie back in the bottle but at the same time all the wannabe trumps have so far turned out to be total stiff losers

― lag∞n, Saturday, 2 November 2024 1:13 PM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i think trump would still have kingmaker power and if he cared could basically ordain the next nominee. but it’s not clear at all that he will care if he’s not running himself, might just trash everybody

If Donald Trump loses (and I very much think he is going to) he will have lost two presidential elections in a row and cost his party the House, the Senate, and numerous other elections across the country. He, himself, is a loser and electoral poison. The fact that he fell backwards into an electoral college victory one time eight years ago has so thoroughly brainwashed people that it's fucking amazing.

― Instead of create and send out, it pull back and consume (unperson), Saturday, 2 November 2024 1:19 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

otm. problem is he’s very popular among republican primary voters

he's not gonna ordain anybody it's all about him all the time

the fact that the GOP went back to him after losing 2020 and then Jan 6 and also getting their asses kicked in 2022 with the Trumpy candidates in particular doing poorly could be an indication that they just really love fascism that much but it could also mean the party just has no ideas, I mean they haven't really done shit since taking the House, they've been one of the least productive Congresses in history

I can see Haley being the next frontrunner. I really do not think it'll be Vance. most likely it'll be some ghoul we aren't really talking about yet.

Yeah I mean we've said this a bunch of times but there is no other Trump. The most important thing about him is that he arrived as already a huge celebrity, he was famous and that got a lot of people excited who don't get excited by politicians. His whole rude/crude shock-jock racist shtick would not have worked as well if he weren't already a star. You can't replicate that, even though obviously people will try.

everything's coming up Vivek!

its high time for a big hair president

otm. problem is he’s very popular among republican primary voters

Seems to me like that's a problem for Republican primary voters, who can't get it together to field a winning candidate. It's a gift to everyone else.

(Assuming he loses on Tuesday. Which I think he will.)

most likely it'll be some ghoul we aren't really talking about yet
The most important thing about him is that he arrived as already a huge celebrity

There's always the possibility of an existing celeb making a left (right?) turn into politics, US posters please tell me who that might be

will say re trump being a loser that he almost beat biden once and very likely would have this time were it not for bidens very bad debate

Reminded of the I Think You Should Leave Now skit in which Tim Robinson’s character does a stupid thing at a party which turns out to be a big hit with a group of losers, who keep trying among themselves to do “another thing”, all while looking at Tim for his approval.

will say re trump being a loser that he almost beat biden once and very likely would have this time were it not for bidens very bad debate

― lag∞n, Saturday, 2 November 2024 1:40 PM (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

if not for the pandemic he would’ve crushed biden in 2020. fumbling the pandemic as bad as he did (and not being able to take credit for the good stuff he did do like operation warp speed due to his supporters being anti-vaxxers) is totally on him tho so that’s a point for the loser side

This isn't even a short decontextualized snippet, it's nearly 2 minutes. At just a base level of making a job hire, it's so crazy that so many people are voting for this.

Trump appears to be unraveling live on stage

“When I say insane asylums, and then I say, Doctor Hannibal Lecter, does anybody know? They go crazy. They say, oh, he brings up these names out of— Well, that's genius. Right. Doctor Hannibal Lecter. There's nobody worse than him.… pic.twitter.com/Yyi4MuhR3N

— Kamala HQ (@KamalaHQ) November 2, 2024

He's right about Hannibal Lecter though

Reading this, I can feel my brain melting into goo.

“I do the weave.” Now I’ve got Tim Curry on the brain.

the most relatable thing about trump is that he likes tv and movies

Love the suit.

And books, which is what he would be talking about with that coterie of English professor friends of his that are so enamored of The Weave.

he's got two more rallies today, they must be pumping him full of the strongest stimulents known to man

Did I read that he is spending the last few days exclusively in ... NC, for some reason?

he's also in VA today which is uhh not where you wanna be in November

NC has only gone blue once since 1976 (Obama 08) so if he's spending the final days there it could be a sign their internals are lookin really bad and they're just hoping for some 270-268 scenario where they can maybe pull some shit

or they're just morons, who knows

Speaking of morons

"Some loser asked Jason Kelce how it feels that his brother is a f—-t for dating Taylor Swift. Jason turned and calmly shattered the guy’s phone."

https://bsky.app/profile/mollyknight.bsky.social/post/3l7yaqevwgi2a

https://bsky.app/profile/waxmonkey.bsky.social/post/3l7yd7dcz7o23

Wonder how Nicklaus measures up to Arnold Palmer?

It’s funny that he talks about how of course Jack Nicklaus’s kids would be great golfers, because as far as I can tell only one of them played golf and he was not good. Took eight tries to make the tour, struggled for three years and quit.

tbf thats still really good at golf

(His one recorded win was in the 1999 Office Depot Father/Son Challenge, where he played with his dad)

Some loser asked Jason Kelce how it feels that his brother is a f—-t for dating Taylor Swift.

Fellas is it gay to have sex with a liberal woman?!

xpost Sadly I read that as the Failson Challenge.

Did I read that he is spending the last few days exclusively in ... NC, for some reason?

Gastonia, North Carolina
Salem, Virginia
Greensboro, North Carolina
Lititz, Pennsylvania
Kinston, North Carolina
Macon, Georgia
Raleigh, North Carolina
Reading, Pennsylvania
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Grand Rapids, Michigan

i dont see how he gets through that schedule he's sounding progressively more rough and braindead every rally, we may break through another plane of insanity by tonight

Hello Lititz, hannibal shark windmill... fuck it, play YMCA

I only post DoubleList ads asking to be dommed by white Republican women

A Harris campaign official in Pennsylvania says their volunteer team is averaging 2,000 door-knocks per minute across the state on Saturday as of 12:54 pm

(Average during typical door-knocking hours)

— Allan Smith (@akarl_smith) November 2, 2024

No Wisconsin, eh?

i dont see how he gets through that schedule he's sounding progressively more rough and braindead every rally, we may break through another plane of insanity by tonight

He might go out like Elvis before this is over.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbZNSQnasAAHETK?format=jpg&name=large

someone needs to take him out of the oven, he's done

jesus man take it to the cursed images thread

is that image artificial stupidity?

i think its "real" (a photograph)

not sure whats going on with his neck there tho

guess its just a weird shadow from the stage lighting on his collar

Several towns could feast in his neck

never noticed how high he wears his collars guess hes trying to tuck the jowls in

it's manipulated way beyond color and contrast, the back of his neck doesn't even look real, and the tie is doubled

my favorite recent twitter post:

#HarrisWalz2024InALandslide pic.twitter.com/6i8mVyvkxe

— Sabrina McDaniel (@Sabrina_McDa) November 1, 2024

it's manipulated way beyond color and contrast, the back of his neck doesn't even look real, and the tie is doubled

― Dan S, Saturday, November 2, 2024 5:58 PM (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

the tie isnt doubled and the rest theres no way to know because you dont have the original photo

this is maybe the same photo

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbZuteoaoAABNiF?format=jpg&name=large

that looks more real

He's giving Otto the Orange from Syracuse University.

"Anthropomorphic citrus with arms, legs and lots of energy"

Catching his reflection in all that bulletproof glass more now

My wife just got back from canvassing in Milwaukee. The people she met more or less ran the (default Dem) gamut. Excited but exhausted Harris supporters, waiting for this to be over. One possible Trump supporter who may or may not have mostly been sick of people ringing his doorbell. Some off-and-on undecided people that were nonetheless strongly leaning Harris. One women who spoke for her husband and said he better vote Harris, if he knows what's good for him. My wife said the biggest difference she felt she made was coming across a couple of random old coots who were not on her list and were not planning to vote. She said she had a nice conversation with them, and at the end of it both said they planned to vote for Harris. One of those two cited Harris's age as an important consideration.

Supposedly there were 20,000 people signed up to canvass WI today.

Why I'm voting for Kamala Harris. pic.twitter.com/WpRVWSGuPd

— Richard Spencer (@RichardBSpencer) November 2, 2024

RFK's purported list of things to be banned is ... something.

Banning Mountain Dew is a bold move, guess it’s not racist enough for Vance.

Kennedy has also said he wants to remove flouride from the water.

https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTWbWBXGRaov1Y9u_9F_O8uBGh63ROyTAJ5GMaDIXuG8WT6rylpV3NL9k-P1XmOWaShaEUseosWaZo1H7gun7ZW3TBbTUWx-pqw56cCBps

Haven't the Kennedy's precious bodily fluids done enough?

they found one!

One of the joys of canvassing is that you meet people who fall into nobody's mental categories.

Case in point: the 70yo white guy I just canvassed who told me he's undecided because they're both great candidates and both would do a great job.

— Ben Wikler (@benwikler) November 2, 2024

Holy shit

holy smokes --- Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) November 2, 2024

👀

That’s insane

Slipknot at the inauguration let's gooo

Trump is going to jail

https://i.imgur.com/u6alk49.png

User mh needs to confirm if that's what he's seeing on the ground.

People half an hour ago saying trump by anything less than 6 or 7 in that poll is great news for Harris.

The French have an expression to describe men who have a deep mahogany tan and/or bronzer:

POULET ROTI

wow that is the Ann Selzer poll

tempering my expectations by recalling the Wisconsin poll in 2020 that had Biden +17 a week before the election

otoh...

Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)

2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

About as good as any pollster gets. https://t.co/OfFO6ePDLy

— Matthew Klein (@MattKleinOnline) November 2, 2024

Fair but that wasn’t Ann selzer

the WI 2020 poll you mean? yeah that was ABC/WaPo

if trump win Iowa by one vote this will be selzer’s biggest polling miss … ever? I mean it’s possible and maybe it’s still a Biden level win in electoral votes, or less but I just don’t see any of the blue wall being in danger with this poll, and that’s the election.

uhh

Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.

The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

would be funny if all the pollsters suddenly untrump their polls now

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co

ive seen enough dems are winning im calling it

― lag∞n, Tuesday, August 6, 2024 9:24 AM (two months ago)

respect

Trump won Iowa by 10 last time I think

the most prestigious poll xp

trump beat Biden by 8.2 in Iowa in 2020

What was the article revealing pro-trump polling bias for fear of underestimating him again? Seems like a lot of them started flipping once that came out. Like a bunch of them suddenly realized that they were going to get blamed for feeding his inevitable stolen election conspiracy when he loses big if they kept up the coin flip narrative.

big late break to kamala lol

Obama won Iowa both times. But if Harris is winning in Iowa, she's gonna win a hell of a lot more than the "whew, we made it" swing states. If that happens, this election is gonna be a genuine repudiation of Trumpism and the Republican Party writ large. A trifecta would not be surprising at that point.

I know Obama won it in 08 but I didn’t think he did in 12

obama won iowa in 2012 by 5.8

Glad we can trust the polls now.

gotta nuke somethin'

Iowa is responsible for more than inspiring Bloom County?

kamala on snl tonight...

I cannot watch topical, depressing bullshit like Saturday Night Live

Iowa is responsible for more than inspiring Bloom County?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fVE8kSM43I

If that happens, this election is gonna be a genuine repudiation of Trumpism and the Republican Party writ large.

Eh. It's very conceivable that a widespread repudiation of another Trump term as President would not indicate a repudiation of the Republican Party generally, or even all aspects of Trumpism. Trump's appeal has waned this election largely based on factors that don't necessarily extend to other GOP candidates, e.g. his advanced age, growing incoherence, increasingly vengeful rhetoric, and perhaps voter distaste for Vance - who they understand could easily become president when you look at Trump's advanced age & growing incoherence.

But, if voters decide to take Congress away from the Republicans I won't kick.

Epstein tapes https://www.thedailybeast.com/listen-to-the-jeffrey-epstein-tapes-i-was-donald-trumps-closest-friend/

Did he fuck Stan Chera’s wife?

Tune in to tomorrow's Meet the Press to find out.

the seltzer poll delivers a result that the nyt by its own admission would never have published. surely kamala +3 in iowa is as “unbelievable” as kamala +7 in pennsylvania would be? the times prob would’ve “adjusted” this result to be trump +5 or something

if trump win Iowa by one vote this will be selzer’s biggest polling miss … ever?

their biggest miss was having D+2 (off by 5 from actual result of R+3) for iowa governor in 2018 - even if you assume a similar miss this time and trump wins iowa with a 2% margin then that still implies dems should do well in general yeah, barring some bizarre result where iowa is a significant outlier and there wasn't much evidence for that because most pollsters were herding

What was the article revealing pro-trump polling bias for fear of underestimating him again? Seems like a lot of them started flipping once that came out. Like a bunch of them suddenly realized that they were going to get blamed for feeding his inevitable stolen election conspiracy when he loses big if they kept up the coin flip narrative.

this hasn't happened, most are still herding which is very frustrating for getting anything useful out of them. selzer wasn't going to herd regardless

Poll-heads say Selzer is the gold standard just absolutely not one to fuck with the numbers and their track record has been impeccable.

the seltzer poll delivers a result that the nyt by its own admission would never have published. surely kamala +3 in iowa is as “unbelievable” as kamala +7 in pennsylvania would be? the times prob would’ve “adjusted” this result to be trump +5 or something

― hott ogo (voodoo chili), Saturday, November 2, 2024 9:23 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

very funny to make all the calls do all the statistics then be like hmm that doesnt look right

This time four years ago, when it looked like Joe Biden was romping to a landslide victory over Trump, it was Selzer who delivered a reality check.

Her final poll for the Des Moines Register in Iowa showed Trump and the incumbent Republican senator with sizable leads, despite the conventional wisdom that both races were close — so close that Biden had just visited Des Moines the day before, four days before the election.

And her poll was right, further establishing her as something of a Midwestern oracle. Her reputation has been burnished by a series of spot-on polls, both in general elections and in the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses.

Even if Harris doesn’t win Iowa next week — and with a combined 9 percent choosing another candidate or undecided, it’s certainly possible things could change — the poll could presage greater-than-expected strength for the Democratic nominee in states with similar demographic profiles that are part of the battleground mix, like Wisconsin.

It's nuts but one of my friends msged me about the Selzer poll, and I'm backstage doing a show and my friend came over to me excitedly about it.

Shit we wouldn't have given a fuck about 15 years ago and it's circulating like Taylor Swift news

credit where its due trump has gotten the country more interested in politics

Betting markets moving

https://i.ibb.co/7WNpm1m/Screenshot-20241102-215644-Chrome.jpg

Glad we can trust the polls now.

― clemenza, Saturday, November 2, 2024 7:22 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is the first one that’s made any sense

We have successfully unskewed the polls.

theyre shook lol cant even make up a poll thats good for them

🚨 SOURCE: Tonight, I spoke with a senior Republican strategist, known for accurate polling in Iowa, who shared private data showing President Trump at +5 in the state.

I trust this source.

— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) November 3, 2024

nate silver is adding this to his average as we speak

https://bsky.app/profile/esopterodactyl.bsky.social/post/3l7z4lplpwe2y

selzer poll is great news. the recent epstein tape seems significant too. wish that dropped a few weeks ago.

Who sits on those tapes for seven years, including though the 2020 election and releases them three days before an election. They’re probably real but Wolff is a mf with some dark secrets.

We have to stop calling former politicians by their former titles

The Harris SNL appearance was not bad

We have to stop calling former politicians by their former titles

You could also stop adding "Mister" to the front of it, you big fucking weirdos.

Why don't we just follow Donald's lead and call him the Trumpster

The get out the vote phone and cancass numbers the Harris campaign just released for Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are pretty astounding.

The meme has been updated, naturally:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbbxG9DbAAAkV-n.png

Abolish all honorifics.

outside of the day 2020 was called this sure feels like the worst day of Trump's political career

Just bookmarked a David Sacks tweet to check in Nov 6

Imagine Stancil’s replies on Nov 6 if it’s clearly Kamala

I've met Giancarlo Sopo, a genuine douchebag in a party full of them.

interesting graph

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbbkLD0aIAASQ2W?format=png&name=900x900

One scenario we can probably rule out is a significant drop in overall turnout vs. '20, esp. in key states. Several fast-growing counties (Dawson, GA; Brunswick, NC) have already surpassed final '20 raw votes cast. Even in Helene-hit NC counties, early voting robust.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2024

Good essay on what to do with these garbage people:

https://www.the-reframe.com/apology-not-accepted/

Jesus, Megyn Kelly looks like end days Gilda Radner in that pic, the hate is poisonous

https://bsky.app/profile/walterolson.bsky.social/post/3la2i7pvyni2s

that is violence

this is dalton bitch we clown in this motherfucker

im not kevin its from twitter

https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:jcpcmok7n6t3uwg5zyzjmqnp/bafkreiaqgd2w3bxf4kccqlo2nj6svyac2skwagjgdcyfbjsmsazqk2ihqy@jpeg

lol cocktail prices have been creeping toward $20 for some time now ...

i mean bluesky, blue twitter xp

big story from the Selzer poll may not even be the actual result, it's that Trump is doing way worse with women than we thought, especially women over 50

might explain why those ads suggesting wives cancel out their husbands' votes are hitting such a nerve. they must know this is a thing that's happening

the other takeway, reflected in those less-than-stellar Kansas and Ohio polls, is that the last week has been really bad for Trump and that the MSG rally might've made it really clear what MAGA really is

might explain why those ads suggesting wives cancel out their husbands' votes are hitting such a nerve. they must know this is a thing that's happening

― frogbs, Sunday, November 3, 2024 10:46 AM (seventeen seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

yup

that poll trendline i post upthread shows womens self id on abortion tracking roughly to party id for years then splitting rapidly after dobbs, thats scary for them, realignment type stuff

If they find it scary that they can’t win being hateful bullies, maybe they should try not being hateful bullies & see if that helps them feel better.

I know a ton of us have gotten irritated with Kamala actively trying to court conservatives but who knows maybe they did identify a real opening

not gonna happen xpost

tough sell lol

Harris campaign saw the same thing in internals. That's why Pete was in Iowa this week doing local media. https://t.co/6OJbV3Jmyu

— Alejandra Caraballo is on Bluesky/Threads (@Esqueer_) November 2, 2024

I know a ton of us have gotten irritated with Kamala actively trying to court conservatives but who knows maybe they did identify a real opening

― frogbs, Sunday, November 3, 2024 11:01 AM (thirteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

you know how much it pains me to say this but could be, liz cheney particularly is a an older white lady who has broken from the gop, seems to be the demo theyre getting movement from

jayyyyyyysus I can't believe we're so close this particular phase of this shit being done. Bring it on. I'm feelin good. It is very possible that in 3 days the Trump era is over except for the whining. Focusing on that.

im looking for the W need that W baby get the bum outta here

jayyyyyyysus I can't believe we're so close this particular phase of this shit being done. Bring it on. I'm feelin good. It is very possible that in 3 days the Trump era is over except for the whining. Focusing on that.

― Blitz Primary (tipsy mothra), Sunday, November 3, 2024 1

I stayed out last night longer than I should have because I was feelin' pretty euphoric.

I've watched a lot of Harris's recent apperances and she is definitely coming off like someone who fully expects to win

so did HRC iirc, I'm feeling the vibes too but I'm trying to temper them. as late as 8:00 on election night 2020 I felt pretty good

she did for most of it but idk that last week was pretty rough, every news network was talking about the Comey/email thing nonstop, in fact now that I think of it it was the November Selzer Iowa poll that convinced a lot of political junkies it wasn't in the bag as much as everyone thought

I mean here's what Trump is like in the final week, I think this might be the first campaign where every stop is actively hurting him

"We're never been this low ... it's a failed country. That's what it is" -- complete nonsense to start the day from Trump pic.twitter.com/HLu4BRPi8W

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 3, 2024

The main difference between 2016 and now is that conventional wisdom was that Trump had no chance of winning, some polls as far as 3 weeks out showed Hillary up 10% nationally, and so when the Comey thing happened and late dropping polls showed a much tighter race (plus Selzer's poll), people like me ignored it and said "nah, it's still in the bag".

This time around it's kinda "tea leaf reading" more than anything, which is why I'm optimistic but not confident, but the narrative this time was that TRUMP had all the momentum and now we are getting late breaking breadcrumbs suggesting it might be breaking back to Kamala.

I don't begrudge anybody for being stressed and worried - I'm going to be a wreck on Tuesday because I know this is nowhere near a comfortable guarantee. But it was a good two days of news at least.

On Wed afternoon I have to show in my film class a certain Fassbinder joint. I suggest re-titling it Alfred: Fear Eats His Soul.

I not only want to Kamala to win but to do so resoundingly such that there is a L forever imprinted on the trump movement and they will have to slink back into the darkness never to be heard from again as a serious threat. Gotta aim high lol